Official National Weather Service observations from the Central Park station confirm a maximum temperature of 62°F on October 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 62-63°F outcome. This reading, taken amid overcast skies, light rain, and northeasterly flow, fell 7°F below the 1991-2020 normal high of 69°F and reflected cooler-than-average early October conditions driven by recent upper-level troughing. Traders assign virtually no probability to 64-65°F because verified station data have already resolved the market. Only an improbable post-publication revision to the preliminary local climatological data could alter the result, though historical NWS processes make such adjustments rare for temperature maxima.