Trader consensus has converged on a 16°C daily high in Munich on October 9 because official observations from stations such as München-Nymphenburg recorded a maximum of that value under mild westerly flow and mostly overcast skies with light showers. This outcome aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 15.6°C for the date, reflecting typical early-autumn conditions without significant warm-air advection or clear-sky radiative heating. Market-implied odds near 100% reflect the absence of meaningful forecast divergence in the final model runs and the completion of the 24-hour observation window. The only realistic revisions would stem from post-event quality-control adjustments by the German Weather Service or differences in station siting, though historical verification shows such shifts rarely exceed 1°C.