Forecasts for Chengdu's October 4 maximum temperature cluster tightly around 23–25°C amid autumnal transition conditions, with numerical models showing modest spread due to variable cloud cover, light precipitation chances, and boundary-layer humidity. Recent observations indicate persistent overcast skies and weak westerly flow that limit daytime solar heating while moderating overnight lows near 18°C. This setup favors a narrow range where small differences in timing of any clearing or shower activity can shift the daily peak by 1°C, explaining the near-even market split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes. Traders are weighting official agency guidance and ensemble consensus that place these values as the most probable under current synoptic patterns.