**Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the CDU consistently ahead of the AfD by 2–4 percentage points, with the CDU at 20–21% and the AfD at 17–18% across late August and early September surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA.** This gap underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the CDU receiving more votes. The CDU replaced its prior lead candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers amid earlier declines, while the AfD under Kristin Brinker has roughly doubled its 2023 result but remains third or fourth. Other parties, notably the Left at 21–23%, compete for the lead, yet mainstream parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD. With the vote one week away and no recent events narrowing the CDU-AFD margin, current surveys sustain the implied probability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCDU
83% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
CDU
83% Chance
NEU
NEU
20. Sep. 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the CDU consistently ahead of the AfD by 2–4 percentage points, with the CDU at 20–21% and the AfD at 17–18% across late August and early September surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA.**
This gap underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the CDU receiving more votes. The CDU replaced its prior lead candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers amid earlier declines, while the AfD under Kristin Brinker has roughly doubled its 2023 result but remains third or fourth. Other parties, notably the Left at 21–23%, compete for the lead, yet mainstream parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD. With the vote one week away and no recent events narrowing the CDU-AFD margin, current surveys sustain the implied probability.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volumen
$9,001Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the CDU consistently ahead of the AfD by 2–4 percentage points, with the CDU at 20–21% and the AfD at 17–18% across late August and early September surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA.**
This gap underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the CDU receiving more votes. The CDU replaced its prior lead candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers amid earlier declines, while the AfD under Kristin Brinker has roughly doubled its 2023 result but remains third or fourth. Other parties, notably the Left at 21–23%, compete for the lead, yet mainstream parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD. With the vote one week away and no recent events narrowing the CDU-AFD margin, current surveys sustain the implied probability.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and AfD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volumen
$9,001Enddatum
20. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 20, 2026, 2:16 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling for the September 20 Berlin state election shows the CDU consistently ahead of the AfD by 2–4 percentage points, with the CDU at 20–21% and the AfD at 17–18% across late August and early September surveys from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and INSA.** This gap underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the CDU receiving more votes. The CDU replaced its prior lead candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers amid earlier declines, while the AfD under Kristin Brinker has roughly doubled its 2023 result but remains third or fourth. Other parties, notably the Left at 21–23%, compete for the lead, yet mainstream parties continue to rule out coalitions with the AfD. With the vote one week away and no recent events narrowing the CDU-AFD margin, current surveys sustain the implied probability.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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