Julieta Ramírez Padilla leads trader pricing for the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial race at 77.8% implied probability following her mid-September 2026 designation as Morena-PVEM coordinator for the state, positioning her as the coalition’s standard-bearer ahead of the June 6, 2027, election. Multiple 2026 surveys of Morena internal preferences showed her ahead of rivals such as Ismael Burgueño Ruiz and Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas by wide margins, reflecting stronger name recognition and organizational support within the dominant party in Baja California. Opposition figures from PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano register far lower odds, consistent with the party’s recent electoral dominance in the state and the absence of comparable recent polling momentum or nomination clarity. The PT’s decision to field an independent candidate has not shifted the market toward greater fragmentation. With the vote still months away, traders price in the structural advantages of the Morena coalition while noting that late developments in the nomination process or general-election dynamics could still alter the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJulieta Ramírez Padilla 75.2%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 4.2%
Gina Cruz Blackledge 1.0%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez <1%
$45,765 Vol.
$45,765 Vol.
Julieta Ramírez Padilla
75%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
4%
Gina Cruz Blackledge
1%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
1%
Fernando Castro Trenti
<1%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra
<1%
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
<1%
Ana Daniela García Salgado
<1%
Juan Carlos Hank
<1%
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
<1%
Jorge Ramos Hernández
<1%
Héctor Osuna Jaime
<1%
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
<1%
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
<1%
Víctor Galicia
<1%
Daylín García Ruvalcaba
<1%
Armando Ayala Robles
<1%
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
<1%
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
<1%
Gustavo Macalpin
<1%
Karla Ruiz Macfarland
<1%
Julieta Ramírez Padilla 75.2%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz 4.2%
Gina Cruz Blackledge 1.0%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez <1%
$45,765 Vol.
$45,765 Vol.
Julieta Ramírez Padilla
75%
Ismael Burgueño Ruiz
4%
Gina Cruz Blackledge
1%
Montserrat Caballero Ramírez
1%
Fernando Castro Trenti
<1%
Evangelina Moreno Guerra
<1%
Gustavo de Hoyos Walther
<1%
Ana Daniela García Salgado
<1%
Juan Carlos Hank
<1%
Jesús Alejandro Ruiz Uribe
<1%
Jorge Ramos Hernández
<1%
Héctor Osuna Jaime
<1%
Adrián Humberto Valle Ballesteros
<1%
Guadalupe Gutiérrez Fregoso
<1%
Víctor Galicia
<1%
Daylín García Ruvalcaba
<1%
Armando Ayala Robles
<1%
Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas
<1%
Joel Anselmo Jiménez Vega
<1%
Gustavo Macalpin
<1%
Karla Ruiz Macfarland
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Julieta Ramírez Padilla leads trader pricing for the 2027 Baja California gubernatorial race at 77.8% implied probability following her mid-September 2026 designation as Morena-PVEM coordinator for the state, positioning her as the coalition’s standard-bearer ahead of the June 6, 2027, election. Multiple 2026 surveys of Morena internal preferences showed her ahead of rivals such as Ismael Burgueño Ruiz and Alfredo Álvarez Cárdenas by wide margins, reflecting stronger name recognition and organizational support within the dominant party in Baja California. Opposition figures from PAN, PRI, and Movimiento Ciudadano register far lower odds, consistent with the party’s recent electoral dominance in the state and the absence of comparable recent polling momentum or nomination clarity. The PT’s decision to field an independent candidate has not shifted the market toward greater fragmentation. With the vote still months away, traders price in the structural advantages of the Morena coalition while noting that late developments in the nomination process or general-election dynamics could still alter the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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