OpenAI’s Codex coding agent has faced repeated reliability challenges this year, including a full 56-minute outage on September 25 that knocked out the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, followed by elevated errors across Codex and related services on September 29 and degraded performance incidents on October 7. These events, tied to internal scaling issues and high demand on the large language model infrastructure, have established a clear pattern of instability. With several months remaining in 2026 and ongoing usage growth, traders assign an 82% implied probability to another outage, viewing recent incidents as strong evidence of persistent technical and operational pressures rather than isolated events.