Recent Q2 results, featuring 37% AWS revenue growth to $42.2 billion and operating income up 43%, have supported trader positioning around current levels near $246.67 as of September 29, with the $245–$250 band commanding the highest market-implied odds at 31%. Elevated 2026 capital expenditures near $220 billion for AI infrastructure have weighed on free cash flow, contributing to the closely contested range between $240–$245 and $245–$250. Q3 guidance of 9–12% revenue growth, the October 29 earnings release, and Prime Big Deal Days in early October stand as key near-term catalysts that could shift weekly closing price sentiment.
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