Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড<1% সম্ভাবনা
$2,159,349 Vol.
$2,159,349 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% সম্ভাবনা
$2,159,349 Vol.
$2,159,349 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$2,159,349শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ভলিউম
$2,159,349শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.7% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop surges, or blockade enforcement in recent weeks. Taiwan’s September 18 joint drills with missiles and attack drones, monitored by a Chinese unmanned aerial vehicle, fit established patterns of routine pressure rather than imminent conflict. Beijing’s focus remains on maritime surveys, air and sea patrols, and diplomatic warnings ahead of the September 24 Trump-Xi summit, where arms sales and Taiwan feature prominently. Official assessments continue to note shortfalls in People’s Liberation Army landing and sustainment capacity for a full-scale operation this year. A sudden diplomatic rupture or undetected force posture shift before month-end could still influence outcomes, though such developments have historically required extended preparation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা