El Niño conditions strengthening through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification via increased vertical wind shear, supporting NOAA’s below-normal outlook of just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. With only two named storms recorded through mid-September and current systems like Tropical Storm Fay weakening offshore, the probability of a Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfall remains low according to seasonal models. Historical analogs under similar El Niño patterns show reduced major hurricane activity, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for no such event before 2027. Late-season rapid intensification or an unexpected shift in steering patterns could still allow a qualifying landfall, though forecast guidance indicates limited remaining opportunity.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
8% সম্ভাবনা
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% সম্ভাবনা
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.El Niño conditions strengthening through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification via increased vertical wind shear, supporting NOAA’s below-normal outlook of just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. With only two named storms recorded through mid-September and current systems like Tropical Storm Fay weakening offshore, the probability of a Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfall remains low according to seasonal models. Historical analogs under similar El Niño patterns show reduced major hurricane activity, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for no such event before 2027. Late-season rapid intensification or an unexpected shift in steering patterns could still allow a qualifying landfall, though forecast guidance indicates limited remaining opportunity.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$343,898শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.El Niño conditions strengthening through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification via increased vertical wind shear, supporting NOAA’s below-normal outlook of just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. With only two named storms recorded through mid-September and current systems like Tropical Storm Fay weakening offshore, the probability of a Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfall remains low according to seasonal models. Historical analogs under similar El Niño patterns show reduced major hurricane activity, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for no such event before 2027. Late-season rapid intensification or an unexpected shift in steering patterns could still allow a qualifying landfall, though forecast guidance indicates limited remaining opportunity.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ভলিউম
$343,898শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...El Niño conditions strengthening through the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season are suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification via increased vertical wind shear, supporting NOAA’s below-normal outlook of just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. With only two named storms recorded through mid-September and current systems like Tropical Storm Fay weakening offshore, the probability of a Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfall remains low according to seasonal models. Historical analogs under similar El Niño patterns show reduced major hurricane activity, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 93% implied probability for no such event before 2027. Late-season rapid intensification or an unexpected shift in steering patterns could still allow a qualifying landfall, though forecast guidance indicates limited remaining opportunity.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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