Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The seat carries a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+11, and all major race raters classify it as solid or safe Democratic. Auchincloss secured renomination in the September 1 primary with 72 percent of the vote against a progressive challenger, while Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed in his primary. Historical results, including Auchincloss's 70 percent margin in 2024, combined with limited Republican fundraising and organization, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include a late-breaking personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, a sharp national political realignment favoring Republicans, or unusually high third-party turnout, though structural fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMA-04 House Election Winner
MA-04 House Election Winner
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
1%
$47,249 Vol.
$47,249 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
$23,504 Vol.
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
$23,745 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The seat carries a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+11, and all major race raters classify it as solid or safe Democratic. Auchincloss secured renomination in the September 1 primary with 72 percent of the vote against a progressive challenger, while Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed in his primary. Historical results, including Auchincloss's 70 percent margin in 2024, combined with limited Republican fundraising and organization, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include a late-breaking personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, a sharp national political realignment favoring Republicans, or unusually high third-party turnout, though structural fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ভলিউম
$47,249শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The seat carries a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+11, and all major race raters classify it as solid or safe Democratic. Auchincloss secured renomination in the September 1 primary with 72 percent of the vote against a progressive challenger, while Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed in his primary. Historical results, including Auchincloss's 70 percent margin in 2024, combined with limited Republican fundraising and organization, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include a late-breaking personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, a sharp national political realignment favoring Republicans, or unusually high third-party turnout, though structural fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$47,249শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETরেজলভার
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss holds a commanding position in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The seat carries a Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+11, and all major race raters classify it as solid or safe Democratic. Auchincloss secured renomination in the September 1 primary with 72 percent of the vote against a progressive challenger, while Republican nominee Tom Stalcup advanced unopposed in his primary. Historical results, including Auchincloss's 70 percent margin in 2024, combined with limited Republican fundraising and organization, underpin the trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include a late-breaking personal or ethical controversy involving the incumbent, a sharp national political realignment favoring Republicans, or unusually high third-party turnout, though structural fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা