Recent forecasts from sources including ECMWF and GFS model runs show a cooler air mass arriving over northern Italy with widespread rain and cloud cover on September 10, producing daytime highs near 18–21°C and overnight lows around 16–18°C. This follows several warmer days and stems from a low-pressure perturbation that lowered temperatures by several degrees while increasing humidity and precipitation, which moderates radiative cooling at night. Traders appear to weigh these model outputs and official Italian meteorological guidance heavily, assigning the highest implied probabilities to minimums in the mid-teens Celsius range amid typical September variability and the absence of strong high-pressure ridging that would otherwise allow sharper overnight drops. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will refine the final recorded low.