Recent ensemble forecasts from the DWD, ECMWF, and GFS models indicate a mild October 5 in Munich, with afternoon highs centered near 20–21°C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. This exceeds the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 16.5°C, supported by residual warm advection and limited cloud cover that allows stronger solar heating before any evening showers develop. Trader consensus favoring 21°C or 22°C reflects minor model spread in peak timing and boundary-layer mixing, while lower probabilities for 19°C or below account for possible earlier rain suppressing the maximum. Updated high-resolution runs expected overnight will further narrow the range ahead of market resolution.