Ongoing Israeli airstrikes and enforcement of buffer zones in Gaza have continued since the October 2025 ceasefire, producing over 1,300 post-ceasefire fatalities through early September 2026 amid stalled reconstruction and limited aid access. No foreign military, police, or peacekeeping forces from outside Israel or Palestinian entities have deployed on the ground, consistent with trader pricing that assigns the highest probability among listed dates to December 31, 2026. Diplomatic talks on governance transition and reconstruction remain active but have not produced deployment commitments, while U.S. and regional involvement stays focused on oversight and negotiations rather than operational presence. Scheduled diplomatic meetings and any shifts in Israeli operations within the resolution window could influence near-term odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডUgandan parliament approves deployment of troops to Gaza as part of international stabilization force
December 31 jumps to 28%5%
Uganda's parliamentary approval to send troops to Gaza signaled growing international commitment to the peacekeeping mission, leading to a rise in market optimism for foreign intervention by the December 31 outcome, despite no actual deployment yet.
Hamas publicly rejects disarmament and foreign security presence in Gaza
December 31 drops to 20%8%
On September 10, 2026, senior Hamas leaders publicly rejected the disarmament plan and any foreign security force presence in Gaza, undermining the peace plan's implementation and reducing the likelihood of foreign troops entering Gaza. This stance contributed to sharp market declines in intervention probabilities for both September 30 and December 31 outcomes.




বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা