Traders assign a 99.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain in office through September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any active removal process or acute political crisis capable of concluding within the next ten days. Impeachment proceedings require House approval and a Senate trial that historically spans weeks or months, while invocation of the 25th Amendment demands consensus among senior officials and Cabinet members that has not materialized. No major legislative, judicial, or diplomatic developments in recent weeks have altered this timeline, and scheduled events such as congressional sessions offer no immediate pathway to vacancy. The short window leaves little room for unforeseen health events, sudden resignation, or external shocks to shift the outcome before the market resolves.