Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting broad consensus on his commitment to serving out the term. This positioning stems from the absence of recent health disclosures, legal developments, or public statements suggesting any intent to step down, alongside historical patterns where sitting presidents rarely resign absent acute crises. Primary drivers include Trump's repeated emphasis on policy priorities through executive action and legislative engagement, combined with standard midterm and electoral timelines that extend well beyond the resolution window. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden medical events requiring incapacitation determinations under the 25th Amendment, major scandals prompting Senate pressure or impeachment proceedings, or unforeseen personal circumstances, though none have materialized in verifiable reporting to date.