**Greens hold an 81% implied probability for third place in the October 24, 2026 British Columbia general election, reflecting their established presence with two sitting MLAs and consistent polling around 12% support.** Recent polls show the NDP leading or closely trailing the Conservatives in the low-to-mid 40s percent range for first or second, while newer or splinter groups such as CentreBC (around 4%) and OneBC (around 4%) trail further behind. The snap election call on September 22, 2026, followed significant Conservative caucus defections that created CentreBC and OneBC, fragmenting the opposition and limiting smaller parties’ seat prospects under first-past-the-post. Historical patterns of Green performance in targeted ridings and the absence of comparable organized third-party infrastructure reinforce trader consensus on their positioning ahead of lower-polling alternatives.