Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show the AfD holding steady at 17–18 percent while the SPD has fallen to 10–12 percent, creating a consistent gap that underpins trader pricing. Multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen over the past two weeks confirm the SPD trailing both the CDU and Linke as well, reflecting continued erosion of its traditional voter base in the capital. The AfD, by contrast, has sustained or modestly expanded its support since the 2023 repeat election despite the nationwide firewall that prevents it from entering government. With early voting already underway and no major late-campaign shifts reported, the polling differential has translated into strong market consensus that the AfD will receive more first-preference votes than the SPD.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAfD
94% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
94% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show the AfD holding steady at 17–18 percent while the SPD has fallen to 10–12 percent, creating a consistent gap that underpins trader pricing. Multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen over the past two weeks confirm the SPD trailing both the CDU and Linke as well, reflecting continued erosion of its traditional voter base in the capital. The AfD, by contrast, has sustained or modestly expanded its support since the 2023 repeat election despite the nationwide firewall that prevents it from entering government. With early voting already underway and no major late-campaign shifts reported, the polling differential has translated into strong market consensus that the AfD will receive more first-preference votes than the SPD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$3,844শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show the AfD holding steady at 17–18 percent while the SPD has fallen to 10–12 percent, creating a consistent gap that underpins trader pricing. Multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen over the past two weeks confirm the SPD trailing both the CDU and Linke as well, reflecting continued erosion of its traditional voter base in the capital. The AfD, by contrast, has sustained or modestly expanded its support since the 2023 repeat election despite the nationwide firewall that prevents it from entering government. With early voting already underway and no major late-campaign shifts reported, the polling differential has translated into strong market consensus that the AfD will receive more first-preference votes than the SPD.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ভলিউম
$3,844শেষ তারিখ
Sep 20, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s September 20 state election show the AfD holding steady at 17–18 percent while the SPD has fallen to 10–12 percent, creating a consistent gap that underpins trader pricing. Multiple surveys from INSA, Infratest dimap, and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen over the past two weeks confirm the SPD trailing both the CDU and Linke as well, reflecting continued erosion of its traditional voter base in the capital. The AfD, by contrast, has sustained or modestly expanded its support since the 2023 repeat election despite the nationwide firewall that prevents it from entering government. With early voting already underway and no major late-campaign shifts reported, the polling differential has translated into strong market consensus that the AfD will receive more first-preference votes than the SPD.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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