The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, delivered preliminary results showing the CDU at 18.8% of the vote compared with the SPD at 12.1%, establishing a clear margin that aligns with the market's 100% implied probability for the CDU receiving more votes. Pre-election polling consistently placed the SPD at historic lows around 12%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition's performance on housing and local governance, while the CDU held relatively firmer support despite trailing the Left Party. The wide gap reduces sensitivity to minor adjustments in final tallies. Outstanding procedural steps, including official certification, potential recounts, or legal challenges under Berlin's electoral rules, could theoretically alter narrow margins in other contexts but appear unlikely to reverse the CDU-SPD ordering given the current spread.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCDU
>99% সম্ভাবনা
$921 Vol.
$921 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
CDU
>99% সম্ভাবনা
$921 Vol.
$921 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, delivered preliminary results showing the CDU at 18.8% of the vote compared with the SPD at 12.1%, establishing a clear margin that aligns with the market's 100% implied probability for the CDU receiving more votes. Pre-election polling consistently placed the SPD at historic lows around 12%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition's performance on housing and local governance, while the CDU held relatively firmer support despite trailing the Left Party. The wide gap reduces sensitivity to minor adjustments in final tallies. Outstanding procedural steps, including official certification, potential recounts, or legal challenges under Berlin's electoral rules, could theoretically alter narrow margins in other contexts but appear unlikely to reverse the CDU-SPD ordering given the current spread.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$921শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: CDU
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: CDU
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, delivered preliminary results showing the CDU at 18.8% of the vote compared with the SPD at 12.1%, establishing a clear margin that aligns with the market's 100% implied probability for the CDU receiving more votes. Pre-election polling consistently placed the SPD at historic lows around 12%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition's performance on housing and local governance, while the CDU held relatively firmer support despite trailing the Left Party. The wide gap reduces sensitivity to minor adjustments in final tallies. Outstanding procedural steps, including official certification, potential recounts, or legal challenges under Berlin's electoral rules, could theoretically alter narrow margins in other contexts but appear unlikely to reverse the CDU-SPD ordering given the current spread.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “CDU” if CDU wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than CDU in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both CDU and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
ভলিউম
$921শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: CDU
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: CDU
The Berlin state election on September 20, 2026, delivered preliminary results showing the CDU at 18.8% of the vote compared with the SPD at 12.1%, establishing a clear margin that aligns with the market's 100% implied probability for the CDU receiving more votes. Pre-election polling consistently placed the SPD at historic lows around 12%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition's performance on housing and local governance, while the CDU held relatively firmer support despite trailing the Left Party. The wide gap reduces sensitivity to minor adjustments in final tallies. Outstanding procedural steps, including official certification, potential recounts, or legal challenges under Berlin's electoral rules, could theoretically alter narrow margins in other contexts but appear unlikely to reverse the CDU-SPD ordering given the current spread.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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