The pause of Blue Origin’s New Shepard suborbital tourism program since January 2026 for at least two years, to redirect resources toward New Glenn orbital flights and lunar lander development for NASA, forms the main driver behind the 70.5% market-implied odds favoring “No.” Bezos’s only prior flight occurred in 2021 aboard that vehicle, and no crewed missions or personal flight windows have been announced through 2027. Trader consensus aligns with the company’s current emphasis on technical milestones such as New Glenn’s targeted return to flight by year-end 2026 and Blue Moon cargo deliveries, which leave limited capacity for suborbital passenger operations before the 2028 threshold. New observational data or schedule updates from Blue Origin could shift sentiment if tourism resumes earlier than planned.