Kurdistan Regional Government leaders have prioritized internal consolidation and coordination with Baghdad over unilateral secession in recent months. The September 2026 unification of Peshmerga forces under a single ministry, alongside ongoing talks between the KDP and PUK to form a new cabinet, reflects efforts to strengthen institutional stability within Iraq’s federal framework. Parallel negotiations on budget shares, census-based revenue allocations, oil export resumption, and a permanent high-level coordination committee with the federal government further signal a focus on resolving disputes constitutionally rather than through independence. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and economic pressure, combined with regional security constraints and the short timeline to December 31, reinforces trader consensus that a declaration remains improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$272,986 交易量
$272,986 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$272,986 交易量
$272,986 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kurdistan Regional Government leaders have prioritized internal consolidation and coordination with Baghdad over unilateral secession in recent months. The September 2026 unification of Peshmerga forces under a single ministry, alongside ongoing talks between the KDP and PUK to form a new cabinet, reflects efforts to strengthen institutional stability within Iraq’s federal framework. Parallel negotiations on budget shares, census-based revenue allocations, oil export resumption, and a permanent high-level coordination committee with the federal government further signal a focus on resolving disputes constitutionally rather than through independence. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and economic pressure, combined with regional security constraints and the short timeline to December 31, reinforces trader consensus that a declaration remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$272,986结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Kurdistan Regional Government leaders have prioritized internal consolidation and coordination with Baghdad over unilateral secession in recent months. The September 2026 unification of Peshmerga forces under a single ministry, alongside ongoing talks between the KDP and PUK to form a new cabinet, reflects efforts to strengthen institutional stability within Iraq’s federal framework. Parallel negotiations on budget shares, census-based revenue allocations, oil export resumption, and a permanent high-level coordination committee with the federal government further signal a focus on resolving disputes constitutionally rather than through independence. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and economic pressure, combined with regional security constraints and the short timeline to December 31, reinforces trader consensus that a declaration remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$0结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETKurdistan Regional Government leaders have prioritized internal consolidation and coordination with Baghdad over unilateral secession in recent months. The September 2026 unification of Peshmerga forces under a single ministry, alongside ongoing talks between the KDP and PUK to form a new cabinet, reflects efforts to strengthen institutional stability within Iraq’s federal framework. Parallel negotiations on budget shares, census-based revenue allocations, oil export resumption, and a permanent high-level coordination committee with the federal government further signal a focus on resolving disputes constitutionally rather than through independence. Historical precedent from the 2017 referendum, which triggered territorial losses and economic pressure, combined with regional security constraints and the short timeline to December 31, reinforces trader consensus that a declaration remains improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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