**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and simulations to certify the arsenal's safety and reliability.** President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials emphasized non-explosive activities such as systems tests and subcritical experiments. Senior officials, including in Senate hearings through mid-2026, have repeatedly stated that explosive testing is unnecessary for stockpile certification, while congressional resolutions and arms control advocates have pushed to preserve the moratorium. Traders assign low probabilities to a full-yield test by December 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed preparations at the Nevada site, technical and environmental hurdles, and risks of triggering broader proliferation or treaty complications. No major new catalysts have emerged in recent months to shift this assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$795,305 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$795,305 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,574 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,920 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and simulations to certify the arsenal's safety and reliability.**
President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials emphasized non-explosive activities such as systems tests and subcritical experiments. Senior officials, including in Senate hearings through mid-2026, have repeatedly stated that explosive testing is unnecessary for stockpile certification, while congressional resolutions and arms control advocates have pushed to preserve the moratorium.
Traders assign low probabilities to a full-yield test by December 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed preparations at the Nevada site, technical and environmental hurdles, and risks of triggering broader proliferation or treaty complications. No major new catalysts have emerged in recent months to shift this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$795,305结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and simulations to certify the arsenal's safety and reliability.**
President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials emphasized non-explosive activities such as systems tests and subcritical experiments. Senior officials, including in Senate hearings through mid-2026, have repeatedly stated that explosive testing is unnecessary for stockpile certification, while congressional resolutions and arms control advocates have pushed to preserve the moratorium.
Traders assign low probabilities to a full-yield test by December 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed preparations at the Nevada site, technical and environmental hurdles, and risks of triggering broader proliferation or treaty complications. No major new catalysts have emerged in recent months to shift this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$795,305结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and simulations to certify the arsenal's safety and reliability.** President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials emphasized non-explosive activities such as systems tests and subcritical experiments. Senior officials, including in Senate hearings through mid-2026, have repeatedly stated that explosive testing is unnecessary for stockpile certification, while congressional resolutions and arms control advocates have pushed to preserve the moratorium. Traders assign low probabilities to a full-yield test by December 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed preparations at the Nevada site, technical and environmental hurdles, and risks of triggering broader proliferation or treaty complications. No major new catalysts have emerged in recent months to shift this assessment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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