Ongoing diplomatic tensions between the Trump administration and Brazilian President Lula da Silva center on stalled approval of the U.S. ambassador nominee and reciprocal visa actions, yet U.S. officials have repeatedly distinguished visa revocations from formal expulsion measures such as persona non grata declarations. The August revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa was framed as reversible upon accreditation progress and explicitly not equivalent to requiring departure, aligning with the market’s narrow definition of expulsion. With only ten days remaining before the September 30 resolution deadline and scheduled G20 tariff talks in Milwaukee, trader consensus reflects the absence of recent escalatory steps and the preference for negotiated de-escalation over abrupt diplomatic rupture. A sudden crisis or breakdown in bilateral channels could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
是
2% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing diplomatic tensions between the Trump administration and Brazilian President Lula da Silva center on stalled approval of the U.S. ambassador nominee and reciprocal visa actions, yet U.S. officials have repeatedly distinguished visa revocations from formal expulsion measures such as persona non grata declarations. The August revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa was framed as reversible upon accreditation progress and explicitly not equivalent to requiring departure, aligning with the market’s narrow definition of expulsion. With only ten days remaining before the September 30 resolution deadline and scheduled G20 tariff talks in Milwaukee, trader consensus reflects the absence of recent escalatory steps and the preference for negotiated de-escalation over abrupt diplomatic rupture. A sudden crisis or breakdown in bilateral channels could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
交易量
$3,158结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing diplomatic tensions between the Trump administration and Brazilian President Lula da Silva center on stalled approval of the U.S. ambassador nominee and reciprocal visa actions, yet U.S. officials have repeatedly distinguished visa revocations from formal expulsion measures such as persona non grata declarations. The August revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa was framed as reversible upon accreditation progress and explicitly not equivalent to requiring departure, aligning with the market’s narrow definition of expulsion. With only ten days remaining before the September 30 resolution deadline and scheduled G20 tariff talks in Milwaukee, trader consensus reflects the absence of recent escalatory steps and the preference for negotiated de-escalation over abrupt diplomatic rupture. A sudden crisis or breakdown in bilateral channels could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,158结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETOngoing diplomatic tensions between the Trump administration and Brazilian President Lula da Silva center on stalled approval of the U.S. ambassador nominee and reciprocal visa actions, yet U.S. officials have repeatedly distinguished visa revocations from formal expulsion measures such as persona non grata declarations. The August revocation of Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa was framed as reversible upon accreditation progress and explicitly not equivalent to requiring departure, aligning with the market’s narrow definition of expulsion. With only ten days remaining before the September 30 resolution deadline and scheduled G20 tariff talks in Milwaukee, trader consensus reflects the absence of recent escalatory steps and the preference for negotiated de-escalation over abrupt diplomatic rupture. A sudden crisis or breakdown in bilateral channels could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题