**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% because Turkey’s parliament lacks the supermajority required for meaningful constitutional change.** A new constitution or major overhaul needs at least 400 of 600 votes to advance to a referendum under Article 175, yet the AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321 seats. Recent opposition fragmentation, including the July 2026 formation of the Yeni Parti from CHP defectors, has further complicated consensus-building. Preparatory steps continue: AKP commissions and a 10-expert panel appointed by President Erdoğan have reviewed proposals, and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism in June 2026 for progress in 2026-2027. However, these remain internal and have not translated into floor votes or broad negotiations. Legislative focus has instead centered on the August 2026 National Solidarity and Social Cohesion bill advancing the PKK disarmament process and ongoing judicial packages. With only months left in 2026 and no evidence of cross-party deals sufficient to clear the threshold, traders view full movement on a new charter as improbable before year-end. Structural barriers and competing priorities continue to anchor the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% because Turkey’s parliament lacks the supermajority required for meaningful constitutional change.** A new constitution or major overhaul needs at least 400 of 600 votes to advance to a referendum under Article 175, yet the AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321 seats. Recent opposition fragmentation, including the July 2026 formation of the Yeni Parti from CHP defectors, has further complicated consensus-building.
Preparatory steps continue: AKP commissions and a 10-expert panel appointed by President Erdoğan have reviewed proposals, and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism in June 2026 for progress in 2026-2027. However, these remain internal and have not translated into floor votes or broad negotiations. Legislative focus has instead centered on the August 2026 National Solidarity and Social Cohesion bill advancing the PKK disarmament process and ongoing judicial packages.
With only months left in 2026 and no evidence of cross-party deals sufficient to clear the threshold, traders view full movement on a new charter as improbable before year-end. Structural barriers and competing priorities continue to anchor the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% because Turkey’s parliament lacks the supermajority required for meaningful constitutional change.** A new constitution or major overhaul needs at least 400 of 600 votes to advance to a referendum under Article 175, yet the AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321 seats. Recent opposition fragmentation, including the July 2026 formation of the Yeni Parti from CHP defectors, has further complicated consensus-building.
Preparatory steps continue: AKP commissions and a 10-expert panel appointed by President Erdoğan have reviewed proposals, and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism in June 2026 for progress in 2026-2027. However, these remain internal and have not translated into floor votes or broad negotiations. Legislative focus has instead centered on the August 2026 National Solidarity and Social Cohesion bill advancing the PKK disarmament process and ongoing judicial packages.
With only months left in 2026 and no evidence of cross-party deals sufficient to clear the threshold, traders view full movement on a new charter as improbable before year-end. Structural barriers and competing priorities continue to anchor the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 91.5% because Turkey’s parliament lacks the supermajority required for meaningful constitutional change.** A new constitution or major overhaul needs at least 400 of 600 votes to advance to a referendum under Article 175, yet the AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 321 seats. Recent opposition fragmentation, including the July 2026 formation of the Yeni Parti from CHP defectors, has further complicated consensus-building. Preparatory steps continue: AKP commissions and a 10-expert panel appointed by President Erdoğan have reviewed proposals, and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism in June 2026 for progress in 2026-2027. However, these remain internal and have not translated into floor votes or broad negotiations. Legislative focus has instead centered on the August 2026 National Solidarity and Social Cohesion bill advancing the PKK disarmament process and ongoing judicial packages. With only months left in 2026 and no evidence of cross-party deals sufficient to clear the threshold, traders view full movement on a new charter as improbable before year-end. Structural barriers and competing priorities continue to anchor the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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