Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360 votes needed to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment. Opposition parties, including the main Republican People’s Party (CHP) and its recent splinter New Party, have declined to join drafting efforts or support the process. While AKP commissions continue preparatory work and officials have reiterated the goal of a civilian constitution, recent legislative focus has centered on the August 2026 PKK disarmament law rather than constitutional steps. With only months left in 2026 and no cross-party consensus or parliamentary majority in sight, traders assign an overwhelming probability that meaningful movement on a new charter will not occur this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
9% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360 votes needed to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment. Opposition parties, including the main Republican People’s Party (CHP) and its recent splinter New Party, have declined to join drafting efforts or support the process. While AKP commissions continue preparatory work and officials have reiterated the goal of a civilian constitution, recent legislative focus has centered on the August 2026 PKK disarmament law rather than constitutional steps. With only months left in 2026 and no cross-party consensus or parliamentary majority in sight, traders assign an overwhelming probability that meaningful movement on a new charter will not occur this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360 votes needed to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment. Opposition parties, including the main Republican People’s Party (CHP) and its recent splinter New Party, have declined to join drafting efforts or support the process. While AKP commissions continue preparatory work and officials have reiterated the goal of a civilian constitution, recent legislative focus has centered on the August 2026 PKK disarmament law rather than constitutional steps. With only months left in 2026 and no cross-party consensus or parliamentary majority in sight, traders assign an overwhelming probability that meaningful movement on a new charter will not occur this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETTurkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) ally hold roughly 321 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360 votes needed to call a constitutional referendum or the 400 required for direct amendment. Opposition parties, including the main Republican People’s Party (CHP) and its recent splinter New Party, have declined to join drafting efforts or support the process. While AKP commissions continue preparatory work and officials have reiterated the goal of a civilian constitution, recent legislative focus has centered on the August 2026 PKK disarmament law rather than constitutional steps. With only months left in 2026 and no cross-party consensus or parliamentary majority in sight, traders assign an overwhelming probability that meaningful movement on a new charter will not occur this year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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