**Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s potential US visit or transit remains constrained by US-China diplomatic sensitivities.** Lai has conducted limited stopovers in US territories, including Hawaii and Guam during Pacific trips, but has not transited the continental United States under the second Trump administration. Earlier 2025 plans for New York and Dallas stopovers en route to Latin American diplomatic partners were reportedly declined or postponed amid concerns over trade negotiations and a Trump-Xi summit. Recent developments include Lai’s current early October 2026 Hawaii transit during a Pacific allies tour, Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung’s Arizona visit for a new de facto consulate opening, and continued US arms sales approvals. These occur against the backdrop of the September 2026 Trump-Xi summit, where Beijing pressed for clearer US opposition to Taiwan independence, and ongoing semiconductor and trade cooperation. US policy continues to treat high-level transits as consistent with unofficial relations, yet practical approvals hinge on avoiding escalation with Beijing. Any near-term continental visit would likely depend on the timing of future diplomatic partner trips and the incoming administration’s risk assessment.