Trader consensus on this multi-outcome Polymarket centers on figures facing congressional scrutiny, prior detentions, or investigations tied to intelligence, pandemic policy, or activism, with John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil holding the highest implied probabilities around 25-30%. Recent Senate testimony by Anthony Fauci, including repeated Fifth Amendment invocations, and ongoing ICE enforcement actions have kept attention on select names, while broader federal probes into prior administrations or protest-related cases provide context. Most outcomes remain below 15% due to procedural hurdles, statutes of limitations, and the absence of confirmed indictments or imminent arrests as of September 2026. Resolution requires physical custody by December 31, 2026, with few scheduled events likely to shift near-term probabilities absent new charges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於誰會在2027年之前被捕？
誰會在2027年之前被捕？
$416,648 交易量
安東尼·福奇
10%
約翰·布倫南
20%
何塞·路易斯·羅德里格斯·薩帕特羅
13%
亞當·希夫
4%
巴拉克·歐巴馬
2%
詹姆斯·科米
8%
馬哈茂德·哈利勒
20%
詹姆斯·克拉珀
12%
Letitia James
4%
希拉蕊·柯林頓
2%
比爾·柯林頓
1%
Loretta Lynch
8%
蘇珊·賴斯
9%
Candace Owens
7%
加文·紐森
3%
本雅明·內塔尼亞胡
5%
約翰·克里
1%
Pam Bondi
2%
湯姆·霍曼
5%
Kash Patel
1%
布蘭登·約翰遜
11%
莉薩·庫克
3%
李俊錫
13%
喬·拜登
1%
$416,648 交易量
安東尼·福奇
$165,423 交易量
10%
約翰·布倫南
$22,822 交易量
20%
何塞·路易斯·羅德里格斯·薩帕特羅
$23,754 交易量
13%
亞當·希夫
$16,985 交易量
4%
巴拉克·歐巴馬
$29,427 交易量
2%
詹姆斯·科米
$10,821 交易量
8%
馬哈茂德·哈利勒
$1,375 交易量
20%
詹姆斯·克拉珀
$8,391 交易量
12%
Letitia James
$3,637 交易量
4%
希拉蕊·柯林頓
$26,360 交易量
2%
比爾·柯林頓
$2,889 交易量
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,411 交易量
8%
蘇珊·賴斯
$304 交易量
9%
Candace Owens
$268 交易量
7%
加文·紐森
$39,425 交易量
3%
本雅明·內塔尼亞胡
$1,949 交易量
5%
約翰·克里
$503 交易量
1%
Pam Bondi
$2,189 交易量
2%
湯姆·霍曼
$41,416 交易量
5%
Kash Patel
$607 交易量
1%
布蘭登·約翰遜
$3,290 交易量
11%
莉薩·庫克
$4,042 交易量
3%
李俊錫
$794 交易量
13%
喬·拜登
$7,565 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on this multi-outcome Polymarket centers on figures facing congressional scrutiny, prior detentions, or investigations tied to intelligence, pandemic policy, or activism, with John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil holding the highest implied probabilities around 25-30%. Recent Senate testimony by Anthony Fauci, including repeated Fifth Amendment invocations, and ongoing ICE enforcement actions have kept attention on select names, while broader federal probes into prior administrations or protest-related cases provide context. Most outcomes remain below 15% due to procedural hurdles, statutes of limitations, and the absence of confirmed indictments or imminent arrests as of September 2026. Resolution requires physical custody by December 31, 2026, with few scheduled events likely to shift near-term probabilities absent new charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
交易量
$416,648市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on this multi-outcome Polymarket centers on figures facing congressional scrutiny, prior detentions, or investigations tied to intelligence, pandemic policy, or activism, with John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil holding the highest implied probabilities around 25-30%. Recent Senate testimony by Anthony Fauci, including repeated Fifth Amendment invocations, and ongoing ICE enforcement actions have kept attention on select names, while broader federal probes into prior administrations or protest-related cases provide context. Most outcomes remain below 15% due to procedural hurdles, statutes of limitations, and the absence of confirmed indictments or imminent arrests as of September 2026. Resolution requires physical custody by December 31, 2026, with few scheduled events likely to shift near-term probabilities absent new charges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$416,648市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETTrader consensus on this multi-outcome Polymarket centers on figures facing congressional scrutiny, prior detentions, or investigations tied to intelligence, pandemic policy, or activism, with John Brennan and Mahmoud Khalil holding the highest implied probabilities around 25-30%. Recent Senate testimony by Anthony Fauci, including repeated Fifth Amendment invocations, and ongoing ICE enforcement actions have kept attention on select names, while broader federal probes into prior administrations or protest-related cases provide context. Most outcomes remain below 15% due to procedural hurdles, statutes of limitations, and the absence of confirmed indictments or imminent arrests as of September 2026. Resolution requires physical custody by December 31, 2026, with few scheduled events likely to shift near-term probabilities absent new charges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions