Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds a narrow market edge at 54.5% implied probability, driven by its dominant Billboard Hot 100 run, Swift’s record VMA history in the category, and intense fan-voting mobilization ahead of the September 27 ceremony. Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me” sits at 33.5%, reflecting her strong recent momentum and last year’s win, while Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” trails at 7.5% despite the longest-form visual and 13 total nominations. The race remains fluid because Video of the Year is determined entirely by public vote, with ballots closing September 25; late surges in streaming engagement or social campaigns could shift the outcome among the six nominees.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年度VMA影片
2026年度VMA影片
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特） 55%
Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande) 34%
Confessions II – The Film（瑪丹娜） 8%
Storm（Gener8ion 與 Yung Lean 合作） <1%
$53,890 交易量
$53,890 交易量
2026-09-27
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特）
55%
Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande)
34%
Confessions II – The Film（瑪丹娜）
8%
Storm（Gener8ion 與 Yung Lean 合作）
1%
Tears（Sabrina Carpenter）
1%
I Just Might（Bruno Mars）
<1%
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特） 55%
Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande) 34%
Confessions II – The Film（瑪丹娜） 8%
Storm（Gener8ion 與 Yung Lean 合作） <1%
$53,890 交易量
$53,890 交易量
2026-09-27
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特）
$14,243 交易量
55%
Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande)
$23,995 交易量
34%
Confessions II – The Film（瑪丹娜）
$8,059 交易量
8%
Storm（Gener8ion 與 Yung Lean 合作）
$1,591 交易量
1%
Tears（Sabrina Carpenter）
$3,397 交易量
1%
I Just Might（Bruno Mars）
$2,605 交易量
<1%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds a narrow market edge at 54.5% implied probability, driven by its dominant Billboard Hot 100 run, Swift’s record VMA history in the category, and intense fan-voting mobilization ahead of the September 27 ceremony. Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me” sits at 33.5%, reflecting her strong recent momentum and last year’s win, while Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” trails at 7.5% despite the longest-form visual and 13 total nominations. The race remains fluid because Video of the Year is determined entirely by public vote, with ballots closing September 25; late surges in streaming engagement or social campaigns could shift the outcome among the six nominees.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$53,890結束日期
2026-09-28市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETThe MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds a narrow market edge at 54.5% implied probability, driven by its dominant Billboard Hot 100 run, Swift’s record VMA history in the category, and intense fan-voting mobilization ahead of the September 27 ceremony. Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me” sits at 33.5%, reflecting her strong recent momentum and last year’s win, while Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” trails at 7.5% despite the longest-form visual and 13 total nominations. The race remains fluid because Video of the Year is determined entirely by public vote, with ballots closing September 25; late surges in streaming engagement or social campaigns could shift the outcome among the six nominees.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$53,890結束日期
2026-09-28市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETTaylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” holds a narrow market edge at 54.5% implied probability, driven by its dominant Billboard Hot 100 run, Swift’s record VMA history in the category, and intense fan-voting mobilization ahead of the September 27 ceremony. Ariana Grande’s “Hate That I Made You Love Me” sits at 33.5%, reflecting her strong recent momentum and last year’s win, while Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” trails at 7.5% despite the longest-form visual and 13 total nominations. The race remains fluid because Video of the Year is determined entirely by public vote, with ballots closing September 25; late surges in streaming engagement or social campaigns could shift the outcome among the six nominees.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions