**Traders assign “No” a 91.5% implied probability because, despite repeated official statements favoring a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, no referendum has been announced and the parliamentary arithmetic remains insufficient.** As of September 2026, the AKP-MHP bloc holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum or the 400 needed for direct passage. Recent activity has centered on narrower judicial reform packages and August 2026 legislation advancing the PKK disarmament process rather than a full constitutional overhaul. Opposition fragmentation, including the July formation of the Yeni Parti, has further complicated coalition-building. While AKP commissions continue drafting work and leaders have referenced possible 2026-2027 timelines, no binding parliamentary vote or official referendum call has materialized in the current session.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
9% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
9% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign “No” a 91.5% implied probability because, despite repeated official statements favoring a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, no referendum has been announced and the parliamentary arithmetic remains insufficient.**
As of September 2026, the AKP-MHP bloc holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum or the 400 needed for direct passage. Recent activity has centered on narrower judicial reform packages and August 2026 legislation advancing the PKK disarmament process rather than a full constitutional overhaul. Opposition fragmentation, including the July formation of the Yeni Parti, has further complicated coalition-building. While AKP commissions continue drafting work and leaders have referenced possible 2026-2027 timelines, no binding parliamentary vote or official referendum call has materialized in the current session.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,475結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign “No” a 91.5% implied probability because, despite repeated official statements favoring a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, no referendum has been announced and the parliamentary arithmetic remains insufficient.**
As of September 2026, the AKP-MHP bloc holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum or the 400 needed for direct passage. Recent activity has centered on narrower judicial reform packages and August 2026 legislation advancing the PKK disarmament process rather than a full constitutional overhaul. Opposition fragmentation, including the July formation of the Yeni Parti, has further complicated coalition-building. While AKP commissions continue drafting work and leaders have referenced possible 2026-2027 timelines, no binding parliamentary vote or official referendum call has materialized in the current session.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,475結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET**Traders assign “No” a 91.5% implied probability because, despite repeated official statements favoring a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, no referendum has been announced and the parliamentary arithmetic remains insufficient.** As of September 2026, the AKP-MHP bloc holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, well short of the 360 votes required to trigger a referendum or the 400 needed for direct passage. Recent activity has centered on narrower judicial reform packages and August 2026 legislation advancing the PKK disarmament process rather than a full constitutional overhaul. Opposition fragmentation, including the July formation of the Yeni Parti, has further complicated coalition-building. While AKP commissions continue drafting work and leaders have referenced possible 2026-2027 timelines, no binding parliamentary vote or official referendum call has materialized in the current session.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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