Recent polling averages place Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio (special), Nebraska, Alaska, and Maine among the tightest projected contests, with several showing margins under three points. Open-seat dynamics in Michigan and Iowa, combined with competitive incumbent races in Texas and Alaska, position these states as frontrunners for the smallest final margin. Special elections in Ohio and Florida add procedural uncertainty that traders weigh against regular-cycle races. Nebraska and Maine reflect narrower polling gaps relative to safer seats elsewhere. Further survey releases, debate performances, or national environment shifts could consolidate support by clarifying which race narrows most in the final weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Texas 14%
Iowa 13.3%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.7%
$45,477 交易量
$45,477 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
14%
Iowa
13%
Michigan
11%
Ohio (Special)
10%
Nebraska
9%
Alaska
8%
Maine
8%
Florida (Special)
4%
New Hampshire
4%
Montana
2%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
2%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Texas 14%
Iowa 13.3%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 9.7%
$45,477 交易量
$45,477 交易量
2026-11-03
Texas
$2,351 交易量
14%
Iowa
$3,298 交易量
13%
Michigan
$3,525 交易量
11%
Ohio (Special)
$9,015 交易量
10%
Nebraska
$3,609 交易量
9%
Alaska
$8,357 交易量
8%
Maine
$2,149 交易量
8%
Florida (Special)
$410 交易量
4%
New Hampshire
$806 交易量
4%
Montana
$1,653 交易量
2%
Virginia
$5,076 交易量
2%
North Carolina
$1,557 交易量
2%
Georgia
$824 交易量
2%
New Mexico
$160 交易量
2%
Minnesota
$1,569 交易量
1%
Colorado
$1,117 交易量
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio (special), Nebraska, Alaska, and Maine among the tightest projected contests, with several showing margins under three points. Open-seat dynamics in Michigan and Iowa, combined with competitive incumbent races in Texas and Alaska, position these states as frontrunners for the smallest final margin. Special elections in Ohio and Florida add procedural uncertainty that traders weigh against regular-cycle races. Nebraska and Maine reflect narrower polling gaps relative to safer seats elsewhere. Further survey releases, debate performances, or national environment shifts could consolidate support by clarifying which race narrows most in the final weeks.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$45,477結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages place Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio (special), Nebraska, Alaska, and Maine among the tightest projected contests, with several showing margins under three points. Open-seat dynamics in Michigan and Iowa, combined with competitive incumbent races in Texas and Alaska, position these states as frontrunners for the smallest final margin. Special elections in Ohio and Florida add procedural uncertainty that traders weigh against regular-cycle races. Nebraska and Maine reflect narrower polling gaps relative to safer seats elsewhere. Further survey releases, debate performances, or national environment shifts could consolidate support by clarifying which race narrows most in the final weeks.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$45,477結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRecent polling averages place Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio (special), Nebraska, Alaska, and Maine among the tightest projected contests, with several showing margins under three points. Open-seat dynamics in Michigan and Iowa, combined with competitive incumbent races in Texas and Alaska, position these states as frontrunners for the smallest final margin. Special elections in Ohio and Florida add procedural uncertainty that traders weigh against regular-cycle races. Nebraska and Maine reflect narrower polling gaps relative to safer seats elsewhere. Further survey releases, debate performances, or national environment shifts could consolidate support by clarifying which race narrows most in the final weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions