Recent data showing Israel’s annual inflation holding near 1.5 percent, comfortably inside the Bank of Israel’s 1-3 percent target, combined with three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts through September that brought the policy rate to 3.25 percent, has led traders to price a high probability of no change at the October 21 decision. Upward risks from housing costs, energy prices, supply-chain pressures, and fiscal uncertainty have prompted forecasters to anticipate a pause in easing, consistent with the Monetary Committee’s recent emphasis on data dependence and the need for clearer inflation stabilization before further reductions. Geopolitical factors and the upcoming national election add caution but have not altered the near-term hold consensus reflected in current pricing.