Recent geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict and associated energy price spikes have weighed on 2026 global GDP expectations, prompting downward revisions from institutions such as the World Bank (2.5%) and FocusEconomics consensus (2.51%). These pressures are partially offset by the ongoing AI-driven investment boom, which has supported trade, technology exports, and activity particularly in Asia, alongside resilient U.S. and emerging-market momentum. Market-implied odds clustering tightly around 3.0–3.1% reflect trader assessments of these countervailing forces, with the Kiel Institute’s early-September update lifting its 2026 forecast to 3.0% amid firmer summer activity. Key swing factors include further oil-price trajectories, inflation persistence, and upcoming Q3 GDP releases that could shift the balance between downside risks and tech-supported resilience.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於3.1% 36.6%
3.0% 28.6%
≤2.9% 19.3%
3.2% 11.5%
$32,418 交易量
$32,418 交易量
2027-01-14
≤2.9%
19%
3.0%
29%
3.1%
37%
3.2%
12%
3.3%
3%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
2%
3.6%
3%
3.7%以上
1%
3.1% 36.6%
3.0% 28.6%
≤2.9% 19.3%
3.2% 11.5%
$32,418 交易量
$32,418 交易量
2027-01-14
≤2.9%
$6,278 交易量
19%
3.0%
$5,338 交易量
29%
3.1%
$4,339 交易量
37%
3.2%
$2,317 交易量
12%
3.3%
$4,033 交易量
3%
3.4%
$4,552 交易量
4%
3.5%
$3,589 交易量
2%
3.6%
$912 交易量
3%
3.7%以上
$1,060 交易量
1%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict and associated energy price spikes have weighed on 2026 global GDP expectations, prompting downward revisions from institutions such as the World Bank (2.5%) and FocusEconomics consensus (2.51%). These pressures are partially offset by the ongoing AI-driven investment boom, which has supported trade, technology exports, and activity particularly in Asia, alongside resilient U.S. and emerging-market momentum. Market-implied odds clustering tightly around 3.0–3.1% reflect trader assessments of these countervailing forces, with the Kiel Institute’s early-September update lifting its 2026 forecast to 3.0% amid firmer summer activity. Key swing factors include further oil-price trajectories, inflation persistence, and upcoming Q3 GDP releases that could shift the balance between downside risks and tech-supported resilience.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間： Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
交易量
$32,418結束日期
2027-01-15市場開放時間
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETThis Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict and associated energy price spikes have weighed on 2026 global GDP expectations, prompting downward revisions from institutions such as the World Bank (2.5%) and FocusEconomics consensus (2.51%). These pressures are partially offset by the ongoing AI-driven investment boom, which has supported trade, technology exports, and activity particularly in Asia, alongside resilient U.S. and emerging-market momentum. Market-implied odds clustering tightly around 3.0–3.1% reflect trader assessments of these countervailing forces, with the Kiel Institute’s early-September update lifting its 2026 forecast to 3.0% amid firmer summer activity. Key swing factors include further oil-price trajectories, inflation persistence, and upcoming Q3 GDP releases that could shift the balance between downside risks and tech-supported resilience.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$32,418結束日期
2027-01-15市場開放時間
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETRecent geopolitical tensions from the Middle East conflict and associated energy price spikes have weighed on 2026 global GDP expectations, prompting downward revisions from institutions such as the World Bank (2.5%) and FocusEconomics consensus (2.51%). These pressures are partially offset by the ongoing AI-driven investment boom, which has supported trade, technology exports, and activity particularly in Asia, alongside resilient U.S. and emerging-market momentum. Market-implied odds clustering tightly around 3.0–3.1% reflect trader assessments of these countervailing forces, with the Kiel Institute’s early-September update lifting its 2026 forecast to 3.0% amid firmer summer activity. Key swing factors include further oil-price trajectories, inflation persistence, and upcoming Q3 GDP releases that could shift the balance between downside risks and tech-supported resilience.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions