**No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 so far**, with the strongest events limited to Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and another Mw 7.8 in Indonesia in August, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations of official data. This positions the 7.9-or-below outcome at 74.5% implied probability, consistent with global averages of roughly one M8+ event per year alongside variability in timing and clustering. Higher bins (8.2+) carry low odds because M8.5+ quakes are far rarer, typically occurring less than once annually on average, and no foreshock sequences or model runs currently signal imminent great earthquakes in high-risk subduction zones. With under four months remaining, trader consensus reflects the modest near-term likelihood of crossing the 8.0 threshold absent new large ruptures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 9%
8.6 – 8.7 5.4%
8.2 – 8.3 5.2%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
75%
8.0 – 8.1
9%
8.2 – 8.3
5%
8.4 – 8.5
3%
8.6 – 8.7
5%
8.8 – 8.9
1%
9.0 or above
3%
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 9%
8.6 – 8.7 5.4%
8.2 – 8.3 5.2%
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$2,353 KL.
75%
8.0 – 8.1
$562 KL.
9%
8.2 – 8.3
$331 KL.
5%
8.4 – 8.5
$201 KL.
3%
8.6 – 8.7
$306 KL.
5%
8.8 – 8.9
$203 KL.
1%
9.0 or above
$156 KL.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 so far**, with the strongest events limited to Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and another Mw 7.8 in Indonesia in August, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations of official data. This positions the 7.9-or-below outcome at 74.5% implied probability, consistent with global averages of roughly one M8+ event per year alongside variability in timing and clustering. Higher bins (8.2+) carry low odds because M8.5+ quakes are far rarer, typically occurring less than once annually on average, and no foreshock sequences or model runs currently signal imminent great earthquakes in high-risk subduction zones. With under four months remaining, trader consensus reflects the modest near-term likelihood of crossing the 8.0 threshold absent new large ruptures.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Khối lượng
$4,111Ngày kết thúc
Jan 4, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.**No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 so far**, with the strongest events limited to Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and another Mw 7.8 in Indonesia in August, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations of official data. This positions the 7.9-or-below outcome at 74.5% implied probability, consistent with global averages of roughly one M8+ event per year alongside variability in timing and clustering. Higher bins (8.2+) carry low odds because M8.5+ quakes are far rarer, typically occurring less than once annually on average, and no foreshock sequences or model runs currently signal imminent great earthquakes in high-risk subduction zones. With under four months remaining, trader consensus reflects the modest near-term likelihood of crossing the 8.0 threshold absent new large ruptures.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Khối lượng
$4,111Ngày kết thúc
Jan 4, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Người giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred in 2026 so far**, with the strongest events limited to Mw 7.8 offshore the Philippines in June and another Mw 7.8 in Indonesia in August, per USGS and Wikipedia compilations of official data. This positions the 7.9-or-below outcome at 74.5% implied probability, consistent with global averages of roughly one M8+ event per year alongside variability in timing and clustering. Higher bins (8.2+) carry low odds because M8.5+ quakes are far rarer, typically occurring less than once annually on average, and no foreshock sequences or model runs currently signal imminent great earthquakes in high-risk subduction zones. With under four months remaining, trader consensus reflects the modest near-term likelihood of crossing the 8.0 threshold absent new large ruptures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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