The 97.3% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the rapid containment of the spring 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths before international contact tracing, quarantines, and 42-day monitoring periods ended with no sustained community transmission. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize that hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than efficient human-to-human routes, with the Andes strain permitting only limited close-contact transmission under specific conditions, yielding an R0 typically below 1. Sporadic U.S. cases, such as the isolated fatal Sin Nombre infection reported in Colorado in May, align with historical patterns of rural rodent exposure and do not indicate epidemic growth. No new surveillance data through September 2026 has shown the viral adaptations or widespread chains needed for pandemic potential.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
3% khả năng
$18,361,267 KL.
$18,361,267 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$18,361,267 KL.
$18,361,267 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 97.3% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the rapid containment of the spring 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths before international contact tracing, quarantines, and 42-day monitoring periods ended with no sustained community transmission. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize that hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than efficient human-to-human routes, with the Andes strain permitting only limited close-contact transmission under specific conditions, yielding an R0 typically below 1. Sporadic U.S. cases, such as the isolated fatal Sin Nombre infection reported in Colorado in May, align with historical patterns of rural rodent exposure and do not indicate epidemic growth. No new surveillance data through September 2026 has shown the viral adaptations or widespread chains needed for pandemic potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Khối lượng
$18,361,267Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 97.3% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the rapid containment of the spring 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths before international contact tracing, quarantines, and 42-day monitoring periods ended with no sustained community transmission. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize that hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than efficient human-to-human routes, with the Andes strain permitting only limited close-contact transmission under specific conditions, yielding an R0 typically below 1. Sporadic U.S. cases, such as the isolated fatal Sin Nombre infection reported in Colorado in May, align with historical patterns of rural rodent exposure and do not indicate epidemic growth. No new surveillance data through September 2026 has shown the viral adaptations or widespread chains needed for pandemic potential.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$18,361,267Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The 97.3% market-implied probability of no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflects the rapid containment of the spring 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced only 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths before international contact tracing, quarantines, and 42-day monitoring periods ended with no sustained community transmission. Official CDC and WHO assessments emphasize that hantaviruses spread primarily via rodent excreta rather than efficient human-to-human routes, with the Andes strain permitting only limited close-contact transmission under specific conditions, yielding an R0 typically below 1. Sporadic U.S. cases, such as the isolated fatal Sin Nombre infection reported in Colorado in May, align with historical patterns of rural rodent exposure and do not indicate epidemic growth. No new surveillance data through September 2026 has shown the viral adaptations or widespread chains needed for pandemic potential.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp