A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.8°C and forecasts showing further strengthening to potentially historic levels this fall and winter, stands as the dominant driver shaping trader views on delayed first measurable snow (≥0.1 inch) in northern U.S. cities. NOAA and CPC outlooks favor above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States through the fall, consistent with typical El Niño patterns of a split jet stream and milder northern conditions that historically push first-snow dates later than average. Current NWS analyses show no early-season cold outbreaks or snow probability signals, with snow forecasts remaining unavailable until mid-September. Traders will watch the next CPC seasonal update and October model runs for any shifts in the warm anomaly strength or Pacific patterns that could accelerate colder air intrusions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFirst snow of the 2026 season
$10,023 KL.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
73%

Denver, CO by October 31
62%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
51%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
55%

Boston, MA by November 15
58%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
95%

Chicago, IL by November 15
71%

Denver, CO by November 15
99%

Detroit, MI by November 15
87%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
87%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
30%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
91%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
52%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
71%

Boston, MA by November 30
85%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
92%

Chicago, IL by November 30
71%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
85%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
100%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
55%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
94%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
51%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
88%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
$10,023 KL.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
73%

Denver, CO by October 31
62%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
51%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
55%

Boston, MA by November 15
58%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
95%

Chicago, IL by November 15
71%

Denver, CO by November 15
99%

Detroit, MI by November 15
87%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
87%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
30%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
91%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
52%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
71%

Boston, MA by November 30
85%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
92%

Chicago, IL by November 30
71%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
85%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
100%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
55%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
94%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
51%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
88%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...A strong El Niño event, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.8°C and forecasts showing further strengthening to potentially historic levels this fall and winter, stands as the dominant driver shaping trader views on delayed first measurable snow (≥0.1 inch) in northern U.S. cities. NOAA and CPC outlooks favor above-normal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States through the fall, consistent with typical El Niño patterns of a split jet stream and milder northern conditions that historically push first-snow dates later than average. Current NWS analyses show no early-season cold outbreaks or snow probability signals, with snow forecasts remaining unavailable until mid-September. Traders will watch the next CPC seasonal update and October model runs for any shifts in the warm anomaly strength or Pacific patterns that could accelerate colder air intrusions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật


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