Christine Lagarde’s term as European Central Bank president runs until October 2027. Recent statements have reinforced expectations she will remain through 2026. In July 2026 she pledged to stay at least until year-end, citing the need for continuity amid economic turbulence and stressing that speculation about an early exit was secondary to her mandate for price stability. While she has left open the theoretical possibility of departing before October 2027 to engage in French political debate ahead of the 2027 presidential election, she has described completing her full non-renewable term as the baseline scenario. Euro-area governments, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have signaled no urgency for an accelerated succession process. These commitments and the absence of any formal resignation or confirmed transition timeline underpin the 65% trader-implied probability that she will not leave office in 2026.