**The dominant factor behind the 86.5% market-implied probability for “No” on a 2026 engagement between Cardi B and Stefon Diggs is the couple’s documented on-and-off status that effectively ended in the first quarter of the year.** After welcoming a son in November 2025, the pair faced trust issues, unfollowed each other on Instagram in February 2026, and Cardi publicly referenced the split at tour stops while later teasing lyrics implying the relationship was over. Brief reconciliation signals in May faded by summer, with Diggs relocating teams and Cardi emphasizing career moves, co-parenting stability, and shutting down unrelated romance rumors. No ring, announcement, or sustained public appearances have materialized in the final months of 2026, aligning trader consensus with the absence of any confirmed path to engagement before year-end.