Cardi B and Stefon Diggs’ on-again, off-again dynamic, marked by a November 2025 son and repeated public friction, underpins the 65.3% market-implied odds against a 2026 engagement. Breakup signals intensified in February when the pair unfollowed each other and Cardi addressed split rumors onstage, followed by a May argument captured on video and her July comments about moving past “some bulls---” while prioritizing her tour, kids, and independence. Diggs has focused on a new Commanders contract and offered only vague co-parenting praise without confirming reconciliation. With no confirmed reunion or ring-related developments since early summer and Cardi’s recent emphasis on single life, traders see limited momentum toward a proposal before year-end.