Despite ongoing corruption probes into Orbán-era procurement, EU funds, and specific cases such as the Ukrainian convoy incident, Hungarian authorities have not filed charges or issued warrants sufficient for Orbán’s detention as of mid-September 2026. The new government’s asset-recovery office and related inquiries target systemic networks rather than immediate high-profile arrests, consistent with procedural requirements for evidence of direct involvement by former officials. Orbán, now opposition leader, faces no active legal actions triggering custody before year-end, and traders assign just a 9.5% chance of arrest by December 31 amid slow judicial timelines and political sensitivities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено10% шанс
$38,502 Обс.
$38,502 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
10% шанс
$38,502 Обс.
$38,502 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite ongoing corruption probes into Orbán-era procurement, EU funds, and specific cases such as the Ukrainian convoy incident, Hungarian authorities have not filed charges or issued warrants sufficient for Orbán’s detention as of mid-September 2026. The new government’s asset-recovery office and related inquiries target systemic networks rather than immediate high-profile arrests, consistent with procedural requirements for evidence of direct involvement by former officials. Orbán, now opposition leader, faces no active legal actions triggering custody before year-end, and traders assign just a 9.5% chance of arrest by December 31 amid slow judicial timelines and political sensitivities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$38,502Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite ongoing corruption probes into Orbán-era procurement, EU funds, and specific cases such as the Ukrainian convoy incident, Hungarian authorities have not filed charges or issued warrants sufficient for Orbán’s detention as of mid-September 2026. The new government’s asset-recovery office and related inquiries target systemic networks rather than immediate high-profile arrests, consistent with procedural requirements for evidence of direct involvement by former officials. Orbán, now opposition leader, faces no active legal actions triggering custody before year-end, and traders assign just a 9.5% chance of arrest by December 31 amid slow judicial timelines and political sensitivities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$38,502Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing corruption probes into Orbán-era procurement, EU funds, and specific cases such as the Ukrainian convoy incident, Hungarian authorities have not filed charges or issued warrants sufficient for Orbán’s detention as of mid-September 2026. The new government’s asset-recovery office and related inquiries target systemic networks rather than immediate high-profile arrests, consistent with procedural requirements for evidence of direct involvement by former officials. Orbán, now opposition leader, faces no active legal actions triggering custody before year-end, and traders assign just a 9.5% chance of arrest by December 31 amid slow judicial timelines and political sensitivities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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