Sustained diplomatic engagement and institutional cooperation between the UAE and Qatar underpin the strong trader consensus against severance of relations in 2026. Recent high-level contacts, including September telephone discussions on bilateral ties and regional de-escalation, joint committee sessions with signed investment and labor agreements, and aligned public positions at forums on Gulf security and Strait of Hormuz navigation, demonstrate continued normalization since the 2021 restoration of ties. Both capitals maintain active embassies and coordinate on shared concerns such as Iran-related risks without signs of breakdown. While the current implied probability for no severance exceeds 95 percent, unforeseen escalations in broader regional conflicts or sudden bilateral disputes over energy routes or mediation roles could still alter trajectories before year-end.