Aaron Flint holds a 62% implied probability in the MT-01 general election because the open western Montana seat leans Republican, with the district having supported the GOP presidential nominee by double digits in 2024. Flint secured the nomination in the June primary with early backing from President Trump and outgoing Rep. Ryan Zinke, while Forstag won a competitive Democratic contest aided by endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Limited polling since the primaries, including a June internal survey showing a statistical tie, combined with strong Republican structural advantages and Cook Political Report ratings of Likely Republican, have anchored trader consensus around Flint’s edge ahead of the November vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMT-01 House Election Winner
MT-01 House Election Winner
$11,260 Обс.
$11,260 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Aaron Flint (R)
62%
Sam Forstag (D)
38%
$11,260 Обс.
$11,260 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Aaron Flint (R)
$6,189 Обс.
62%
Sam Forstag (D)
$5,071 Обс.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint holds a 62% implied probability in the MT-01 general election because the open western Montana seat leans Republican, with the district having supported the GOP presidential nominee by double digits in 2024. Flint secured the nomination in the June primary with early backing from President Trump and outgoing Rep. Ryan Zinke, while Forstag won a competitive Democratic contest aided by endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Limited polling since the primaries, including a June internal survey showing a statistical tie, combined with strong Republican structural advantages and Cook Political Report ratings of Likely Republican, have anchored trader consensus around Flint’s edge ahead of the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,260Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aaron Flint holds a 62% implied probability in the MT-01 general election because the open western Montana seat leans Republican, with the district having supported the GOP presidential nominee by double digits in 2024. Flint secured the nomination in the June primary with early backing from President Trump and outgoing Rep. Ryan Zinke, while Forstag won a competitive Democratic contest aided by endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Limited polling since the primaries, including a June internal survey showing a statistical tie, combined with strong Republican structural advantages and Cook Political Report ratings of Likely Republican, have anchored trader consensus around Flint’s edge ahead of the November vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$11,260Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Aaron Flint holds a 62% implied probability in the MT-01 general election because the open western Montana seat leans Republican, with the district having supported the GOP presidential nominee by double digits in 2024. Flint secured the nomination in the June primary with early backing from President Trump and outgoing Rep. Ryan Zinke, while Forstag won a competitive Democratic contest aided by endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Limited polling since the primaries, including a June internal survey showing a statistical tie, combined with strong Republican structural advantages and Cook Political Report ratings of Likely Republican, have anchored trader consensus around Flint’s edge ahead of the November vote.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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