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icon for Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

icon for Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

3% шанс
Polymarket

$18,361,267 Обс.

3% шанс
Polymarket

$18,361,267 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026—yielding 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—drove the near-certain market consensus against a hantavirus pandemic. Official CDC and WHO monitoring through June confirmed no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the ship after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing of hundreds of individuals across multiple countries. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses transmitted via aerosolized urine, droppings, or saliva, with the Andes strain permitting only close-contact spread unlike highly transmissible respiratory pathogens. No new clusters or elevated case counts have emerged by September 2026. A realistic shift would require a novel spillover event involving a more efficiently transmissible strain or undetected mutation enabling broader airborne spread, though current epidemiological data show no such trajectory.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$18,361,267
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The limited Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship in spring 2026—yielding 13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths—drove the near-certain market consensus against a hantavirus pandemic. Official CDC and WHO monitoring through June confirmed no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the ship after 42-day quarantines and contact tracing of hundreds of individuals across multiple countries. Hantaviruses remain primarily rodent-borne zoonoses transmitted via aerosolized urine, droppings, or saliva, with the Andes strain permitting only close-contact spread unlike highly transmissible respiratory pathogens. No new clusters or elevated case counts have emerged by September 2026. A realistic shift would require a novel spillover event involving a more efficiently transmissible strain or undetected mutation enabling broader airborne spread, though current epidemiological data show no such trajectory.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$18,361,267
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 3% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 3¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 3%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?» згенерував $18.4 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку May 4, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?» — 3% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 3% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.