US birthright citizenship under the 14th Amendment, combined with narrow statutory grounds for revocation such as naturalization fraud or specific criminal conduct, forms the core structural barrier against rescinding Eileen Gu’s status. No formal State Department expatriation process, DOJ denaturalization filing, or legislative change targeting her case has emerged through September 2026, despite periodic commentary around her representation of China and reported payments from Chinese sports authorities. Traders’ 97.8% consensus on “No” by the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline reflects these legal thresholds and the lack of any active administrative proceeding. Low-probability shifts could arise only from unforeseen statutory amendments or newly documented prior fraud, neither of which has materialized.