Recent USDA Agricultural Commodities in Drought data place roughly 23% of the U.S. hog inventory in areas experiencing moderate or worse drought (D1+), directly supporting trader emphasis on the 15–24% outcome. This figure reflects the concentration of hog production in the Midwest and Corn Belt, where late-September conditions showed mixed signals: localized heavy rainfall improved soil moisture in parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and the eastern Plains, while persistent dryness worsened deficits across Texas, Oklahoma, and the Lower Midwest. With the U.S. Drought Monitor reporting about 50% of the contiguous U.S. in D1+ drought as of September 29, 2026, and NOAA’s October outlook favoring improvement across southern and northeastern regions, near-term shifts in these key production states will determine whether the percentage edges lower or holds near current levels ahead of the next weekly update.