Traders assign a 96.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting broad consensus on the historical rarity of presidential resignations absent acute crises. Incumbents typically complete their terms once inaugurated, with structural factors such as party support, institutional continuity, and personal commitment to office outweighing isolated pressures. No verified developments in recent months, including legislative setbacks, confirmation processes, or public statements, have signaled an imminent departure. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain low-probability but include sudden health events, major legal rulings, or unprecedented scandals prompting voluntary exit before the resolution date. The current pricing aligns with base rates from prior administrations where full-term service prevailed.