Netanyahu’s formal rejection of the US-backed 15-point Gaza roadmap on October 31 has reinforced the core impasse, with Israel demanding full Hamas disarmament before any further withdrawal beyond the Yellow Line. Hamas officials have reiterated conditional acceptance of the Trump Board of Peace framework, stating they will implement phased steps only after Israeli approval of the text and initial pullback, while tying heavier weapons surrender to a durable ceasefire and statehood progress. Ongoing Israeli strikes, Hamas threats of renewed attacks, and stalled verification mechanisms have kept negotiations frozen since the July announcement. Traders price the December 31, 2026 resolution at low single-digit odds, reflecting these sequencing disputes and the absence of an official Hamas policy announcement. Upcoming US midterm outcomes and mediator pressure could influence momentum before year-end.