The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced inactivity, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress formation, underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University forecast below-normal totals of 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and at most 0-2 major hurricanes for the June-November period, with observed activity through mid-September limited to weak tropical storms like Fay that pose no land threat. Only four Category 5 landfalls have occurred in the continental U.S. since reliable records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. With peak months largely concluded and current steering patterns plus shear unfavorable for rapid intensification, any remaining window for a qualifying storm is narrow. A late-October or November outlier that defies models and reaches Category 5 intensity (Saffir-Simpson scale) before U.S. landfall remains the primary low-probability variable that could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
3% tsansa
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% tsansa
$142,105 Vol.
$142,105 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced inactivity, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress formation, underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University forecast below-normal totals of 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and at most 0-2 major hurricanes for the June-November period, with observed activity through mid-September limited to weak tropical storms like Fay that pose no land threat. Only four Category 5 landfalls have occurred in the continental U.S. since reliable records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. With peak months largely concluded and current steering patterns plus shear unfavorable for rapid intensification, any remaining window for a qualifying storm is narrow. A late-October or November outlier that defies models and reaches Category 5 intensity (Saffir-Simpson scale) before U.S. landfall remains the primary low-probability variable that could shift odds before year-end resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$142,105Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced inactivity, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress formation, underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University forecast below-normal totals of 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and at most 0-2 major hurricanes for the June-November period, with observed activity through mid-September limited to weak tropical storms like Fay that pose no land threat. Only four Category 5 landfalls have occurred in the continental U.S. since reliable records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. With peak months largely concluded and current steering patterns plus shear unfavorable for rapid intensification, any remaining window for a qualifying storm is narrow. A late-October or November outlier that defies models and reaches Category 5 intensity (Saffir-Simpson scale) before U.S. landfall remains the primary low-probability variable that could shift odds before year-end resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$142,105Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's pronounced inactivity, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress formation, underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability of no U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University forecast below-normal totals of 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and at most 0-2 major hurricanes for the June-November period, with observed activity through mid-September limited to weak tropical storms like Fay that pose no land threat. Only four Category 5 landfalls have occurred in the continental U.S. since reliable records began, underscoring their rarity even in active seasons. With peak months largely concluded and current steering patterns plus shear unfavorable for rapid intensification, any remaining window for a qualifying storm is narrow. A late-October or November outlier that defies models and reaches Category 5 intensity (Saffir-Simpson scale) before U.S. landfall remains the primary low-probability variable that could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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