Apple’s recent wave of senior executive departures—including heads of AI, design, legal, and operations—has emerged as the main catalyst elevating implied probability for Tim Cook’s exit before 2027, amid ongoing hardware and services transitions. Broader market sentiment for Sundar Pichai, Andy Jassy, Brian Armstrong, and Dan Clancy remains subdued, reflecting stable tenures despite heavy AI infrastructure spending, voluntary buyouts at Alphabet and Meta, and cost-focused reorganizations across large language model developers. Sam Altman’s odds stay lower given OpenAI’s continued funding momentum and leadership continuity post-2023 board events. Traders are watching upcoming earnings calls, potential regulatory scrutiny on AI deployment, and any succession signals at Apple or Google for shifts in these skin-in-the-game probabilities.