**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and simulations to certify the arsenal's safety and reliability.** President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials emphasized non-explosive activities such as systems tests and subcritical experiments. Senior officials, including in Senate hearings through mid-2026, have repeatedly stated that explosive testing is unnecessary for stockpile certification, while congressional resolutions and arms control advocates have pushed to preserve the moratorium. Traders assign low probabilities to a full-yield test by December 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed preparations at the Nevada site, technical and environmental hurdles, and risks of triggering broader proliferation or treaty complications. No major new catalysts have emerged in recent months to shift this assessment.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
Nuclear test ng US sa pamamagitan ng...?
$795,305 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Setyembre 30, 2026
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
5%
$795,305 Vol.
Setyembre 30, 2026
$57,574 Vol.
1%
Disyembre 31, 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and simulations to certify the arsenal's safety and reliability.**
President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials emphasized non-explosive activities such as systems tests and subcritical experiments. Senior officials, including in Senate hearings through mid-2026, have repeatedly stated that explosive testing is unnecessary for stockpile certification, while congressional resolutions and arms control advocates have pushed to preserve the moratorium.
Traders assign low probabilities to a full-yield test by December 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed preparations at the Nevada site, technical and environmental hurdles, and risks of triggering broader proliferation or treaty complications. No major new catalysts have emerged in recent months to shift this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,305Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and simulations to certify the arsenal's safety and reliability.**
President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials emphasized non-explosive activities such as systems tests and subcritical experiments. Senior officials, including in Senate hearings through mid-2026, have repeatedly stated that explosive testing is unnecessary for stockpile certification, while congressional resolutions and arms control advocates have pushed to preserve the moratorium.
Traders assign low probabilities to a full-yield test by December 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed preparations at the Nevada site, technical and environmental hurdles, and risks of triggering broader proliferation or treaty complications. No major new catalysts have emerged in recent months to shift this assessment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,305Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since its last test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, subcritical experiments, and simulations to certify the arsenal's safety and reliability.** President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China initially raised expectations, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials emphasized non-explosive activities such as systems tests and subcritical experiments. Senior officials, including in Senate hearings through mid-2026, have repeatedly stated that explosive testing is unnecessary for stockpile certification, while congressional resolutions and arms control advocates have pushed to preserve the moratorium. Traders assign low probabilities to a full-yield test by December 2026, reflecting the absence of confirmed preparations at the Nevada site, technical and environmental hurdles, and risks of triggering broader proliferation or treaty complications. No major new catalysts have emerged in recent months to shift this assessment.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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