Morena holds an 84% implied probability as the leading outcome for control of the Tabasco state congress, reflecting its entrenched dominance as the ruling party in the governor’s home state. Recent municipal cómputos concluded in October 2026 confirmed Morena securing 14 of 17 ayuntamientos and retaining all 21 majority-relative seats in the legislature, consistent with its 2024 results where it captured 21 of 35 total seats. High gubernatorial approval ratings near 68% for Javier May, combined with strong performance in federal district races across the southeast, have reinforced trader consensus around continued Morena majorities. Opposition parties including PVEM, PRI, PT, MC, and PAN register single-digit probabilities, limited by fragmented support and Morena’s organizational edge in local voting blocs. No major late shifts have altered this positioning ahead of any further legislative distribution.