**PP leads the León constituency market at 84% implied probability due to sustained polling advantages in the province ahead of the November 29 general election.** National surveys place PP at roughly 29–32% support, ahead of PSOE at 26–27% and Vox near 19–20%, with provincial models projecting PP vote shares around 38% in León—enough for two of the four seats under D’Hondt rules. PSOE holds a narrower path to one seat at about 13–15% probability, while Vox sits lower despite recent regional gains. Recent developments include PP’s candidate announcements headed by Ester Muñoz, emphasis on pending infrastructure projects, and the broader right-of-center momentum after the snap election call. No major late shifts have altered these relative positions in the past month.